WE'RE HEADED TOWARD TROUBLE

One of the best ways to prepare for, and fight against, trouble is to know when you’re headed toward trouble. What’s more, you need to say it aloud for all to hear; you need to proclaim it at every opportunity; you need to not mince words. Say it. Directly. Say it. Straight, no chaser. Say it. With your chest. Not worrying about people accusing you of lacking hope. Say it. Not giving a thought to the possibility that loved ones might look at you like you’re talking out the side of your neck. Say it. Not giving a damn that you might end up getting one of those “pain has a purpose” responses.

Say it.

So that others—and even you, for that matter— might summon up the courage to resist what lies ahead.

Say it.

So that your words might reawaken that which may have fallen asleep.

Of something more beautiful.

Of something more just.

Of something other than that which is.

Say it:

We’re headed for trouble.

THE TROUBLE AHEAD

A recent report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) points directly to the trouble that’s ahead, and it’s summarized by a single number: 9.1%. That figure—9.1— is the percent by which the average price level increased over the last twelve months (June 2021-June 2022), and it exceeds the annualized rate of 8.6% recorded for the months of May 2021-May 2022. The increase was across the board, with the largest rises being for gasoline, shelter, and food. And 9.1%, by the way, is the largest annualized increased we’ve experienced in the last forty year.

So, this ain’t nothing to sneeze at.

But how, you might be wondering, does this point toward trouble? It points toward trouble because it is precisely the type of data that is invoked—erroneously and callously— in support of waging war against workers, calling for austerity measures, and sacrificing the most economically pressed citizens in the name of price stability. You should expect, for instance, to hear more and more about how “rising wages” is a major culprit behind sprinting prices, despite the undeniable reality that, after taking into account inflation, worker wages are falling, not rising. You should expect to get bombarded with more stories that slam those “stimmies” as the driving force behind inflation, despite the considerable evidence that the stimulus payments, although relatively large, we’re not nearly large enough to set off the type of inflation that we’re currently witnessing.

And most definitely expect to hear the Federal Reserve folk — “Powell and dem”— drone on about labor markets being too “tight,” wages needing to be brought down, and staying the Fed’s current course until there’s evidence that a sufficient number of bodies have piled up to cool the economy down. Expect to hear “Powell and dem” prattle on about how a “soft landing” of cooling off inflation without inducing an all out recession might involve some pain. Expect the folk at the Fed to try to calm your fears by telling you—the public— that if slamming on the brakes results in some “passengers” getting ejected from the “vehicle”— know that it’s all for the greater good of price stability.

And come July26th-27th expect “Powell and dem” to make good by hiking the Fed’s benchmark interest rate yet another 75 basis points (3/4 of 1 percent). Come to think of it, I’m willing to wager that the next increase will be more than 3/4 of a percent. The Fed will undoubtedly view this 9.1% annualized increase in conjunction with an earlier report that the 372,000 gigs were added to the economy during the month of June. For neo-liberals that’s more than enough evidence that labor markets are smoking and need to be chilled down with a healthy dousing of joblessness.

In fact, I’d say expect rate increases to characterize the Fed’s meetings in September, November, and December. This slamming on the brakes, this tamping down on consumer demand, this path leading to the pain of unemployment for the people who can least afford it, this dogged determination to find the correct body count, this whetting of the appetite of the austerity crowd— all of this, and more, is likely to characterize the rest of 2022.

It’s going to take all the juju we can muster to beat this stuff back. And that, I think, requires the courage to look into the potential economic abyss and unflinchingly proclaim:

We’re headed toward trouble.